A White House graphic claims home prices are falling in 14 of the 20 U.S. metros with the largest undocumented populations, linking those declines directly to President Donald Trump’s mass deportation campaign.
In Austin, San Diego, and Miami, median list prices are shown down roughly 7.3%, 6.7%, and 4.3% year over year, respectively, as officials tout “tangible results” for American homeowners.
White House touts “mass deportations = lower housing costs”
In a statement and online article, the White House declares “Mass deportations = lower housing costs,” arguing its interior enforcement strategy is freeing up resources and easing pressure on overheated housing markets.
Officials say housing affordability is “showing signs of improvement” as home prices drop for the first time in more than two years.
Two million removals framed as economic win
The administration points to an estimated two million people who have either been deported or self-deported since the crackdown accelerated in 2025, presenting the figure as proof the strategy is working.
Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said last year, “The numbers don’t lie: 2 million illegal aliens have been removed or self-deported in just 250 days.”
Charted declines in key sunbelt metros
According to the White House–highlighted data, metro areas such as Austin, San Diego, and Miami have seen some of the steepest year‑over‑year median list‑price declines among cities with large undocumented populations.
Officials argue those numbers show deportations are already improving affordability in places that experienced sharp pandemic‑era housing booms.
Sanctuary cities flagged as exceptions
In its messaging, the administration notes that the three metros in its sample where list prices still rose modestly are all so‑called “sanctuary cities,” which tend to limit cooperation with federal immigration enforcement.
That contrast is used to bolster the claim that stricter enforcement is directly tied to softer housing costs in other jurisdictions.
Wider “quality of life” case from the White House
Beyond housing, the White House article links mass deportations to higher wages, more jobs for native‑born workers, and lower crime, presenting the campaign as a broad quality‑of‑life upgrade.
Officials cite gains in employment for native‑born Americans alongside declines in murders and other serious crimes in several major cities targeted for enforcement.
Economists warn of inflation and supply shocks
Many economists dispute the simple cause‑and‑effect story between deportations and lower prices, warning that large‑scale removals can reduce the labor force and push overall inflation higher.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, has cautioned that ongoing deportations could help drive U.S. inflation toward 4% by tightening worker supply in key sectors.
Housing researchers: link is “more complicated”
Housing specialists emphasize that home prices are driven primarily by interest rates, construction capacity, and long‑running supply shortages, not just population changes.
“The housing market always ebbs and flows,” one Austin‑area realtor told local TV, adding that factors such as mortgage costs and job trends matter more than deportation policies “if at all.”
Immigrants also build the homes, experts note
Researchers stress that immigrants contribute not only to housing demand but also to housing supply by making up a large share of construction workers.
Economists warn that removing those workers can slow building activity and, over time, limit new supply, a shift that may put upward pressure on prices rather than reduce them.
Historical evidence from earlier deportation waves
Studies of the 2000s “Secure Communities” program, which led to the deportation of hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants, found significant effects on local construction labor forces.
In affected regions, reduced construction employment was associated with slower homebuilding and, in some cases, higher housing costs, undercutting expectations of cheaper homes.
Competing narratives on affordability
The White House argues its current enforcement surge is finally giving middle‑class Americans relief after years of soaring rents and home values.
Critics counter that recent price softening reflects cooling demand after pandemic spikes, higher mortgage rates, and broader economic shifts that would have unfolded regardless of deportation numbers.
Local markets moving at different speeds
Analysts also highlight that housing markets are highly local, with some regions still struggling with severe undersupply while others cool faster.
Immigration can help stabilize areas with aging or shrinking populations, while sudden population drops in tight markets may have unpredictable side effects on neighborhood vitality and tax bases.
Labor shortages already emerging
Early data show foreign‑born labor force participation flattening or declining in several industries heavily reliant on immigrant workers, including construction and agriculture.
Economists warn that as deportation effects fully materialize, employers may face more acute labor shortages, pushing wages and production costs higher and feeding into consumer prices.
Administration doubles down on causation claim
Despite skepticism from researchers, the Trump administration continues to present the correlation between falling list prices and deportation hotspots as evidence of direct causation.
Officials argue that by reducing competition for housing and public services, enforcement is delivering immediate financial benefits to citizens struggling with living costs.
Public debate over long‑term consequences
The dispute over what is driving recent price shifts is likely to intensify as more housing and inflation data emerge in 2026.
Supporters see mass deportations as a necessary correction that prioritizes citizens, while critics warn of long‑term risks to growth, affordability, and community stability if labor and housing markets remain out of balance.
Sources:
“Mass Deportations Are Improving Americans’ Quality of Life.” The White House, January 2026.
“White House Says Mass Deportations Are Lowering Housing Costs in the U.S.” CBS Austin, January 2026.
“Trump Is Deporting So Many Immigrants That It Could Cause Inflation.” Fortune, August 2025.