Thanksgiving shoppers in November 2025 encountered a paradox at checkout counters across America. Discount tags promised relief—turkey prices down 16% year-over-year, Walmart’s holiday baskets marked 25% cheaper than the previous year. Yet the savings masked a harder reality. Smaller portions, fewer items, and lower-cost brands filled those discounted baskets, while food prices overall had climbed 23.6% since 2020. The tariff rollbacks that arrived in late 2025 confirmed what economists had warned for years: import duties raise grocery costs. But reversing them could not undo four years of accumulated inflation already embedded in supply chains.
The Tariff Legacy
For over a year, steep import duties on global staples—Brazilian beef, Colombian and Vietnamese coffee, Mexican tomatoes—had rippled through American kitchens. When trade agreements lapsed, shoppers noticed the impact immediately. Exit polls later showed voters directly connecting tariffs to their grocery bills. By November 2025, nearly 200 food items received retroactive exemptions from duties. The timing, however, proved too late. Months of elevated costs had already baked into distribution networks, and retailers had adjusted pricing structures accordingly.
Holiday Discounts Hide Structural Strain
Walmart’s 25% cheaper Thanksgiving basket told only part of the story. Retailers temporarily absorbed profit margins to soften seasonal sticker shock, a strategy economists warned would prove temporary. Many expect price rebounds once promotional periods expire in January 2026. Americans briefly paid less while receiving demonstrably less—a compression of purchasing power disguised by discount signage.
Beef and Cattle Supply Constraints
Even with tariff cuts, beef remained expensive. Cattle herds were already shrinking through natural production cycles. A Mexican cattle import freeze from November 2024 through February 2025, triggered by New World screwworm detections, further tightened supply. The USDA projected 11.6% higher beef and veal prices for 2025. Cheaper tariffs could not compensate for fewer animals. Ranchers faced disease risk and limited herds—a biological constraint that trade policy alone cannot override.
Coffee and Inventory Lag
Brazil supplies one-third of U.S. coffee imports, with Vietnam and Colombia providing major shares. When tariffs were removed in November 2025, beans were already moving through the system at older, higher duty rates. Retailers must first sell through expensive inventory before prices fall. Savings won’t reach consumers immediately. Even with rollback, Americans may wait months for cheaper coffee—a reminder that supply chains move slower than policy changes.
Disease and Input Costs Drive Broader Inflation
Egg prices spiked for reasons entirely separate from tariffs. Avian influenza outbreaks slashed flock numbers, pushing farm-level egg costs up 36.7% and retail prices 24.8% higher for 2025. Disease, not tariffs, became the dominant price driver. Finished food tariffs fell, but steel, aluminum, pesticide and farm-input tariffs remained, raising equipment and fertilizer costs. Farmers paid more to produce the same crops and proteins, pushing final prices upward. Economists warn that input tariffs can create 5–15% retail price pass-throughs. Cutting duties on tomatoes means little if tractors, fuel and crop chemicals stay expensive.
Market Concentration Under Scrutiny
In November 2025, the Department of Justice launched investigations into major meatpackers controlling approximately 80% of U.S. beef processing. High beef prices persisting after tariff rollbacks fueled suspicion that market concentration—not just tariffs—drove inflation. Whether accountability lowers prices remains unknown, but the shift signaled Washington exploring structural causes beyond trade policy.
Consumer Behavior Shifts Permanently
Food-at-home inflation remained elevated at 2.7% in August 2025, even as overall inflation cooled to 2.6%. Since 2020, grocery prices climbed 23.6%, biting into household budgets more sharply than housing or healthcare. With 132 million U.S. households facing elevated food costs, the typical family absorbed increased expenses from accumulated price growth since 2020. Shoppers responded by switching to cheaper private-label groceries. Premium products left carts, replaced by bulk rice, canned staples and budget snacks. Shrinkflation became standard—same price, less inside. Organic and local food sales slowed as families prioritized affordability over sustainability. Farmers markets and CSA programs saw enrollment drop.
Political Reckoning
A POLITICO/Public First poll found 55% of Americans blame the administration for high grocery prices—more than housing or healthcare frustrations. Even 20% of Trump’s 2024 voters feared they couldn’t afford basic food. The tariff rollback, though significant, came after public opinion hardened. Once a household struggles to afford food, policy corrections rarely erase that memory.
Value-focused retailers surged while premium grocers struggled. Analysts expect this shift to outlive inflation itself. Savings-based habits stick. Grocery markets quietly reorganized around price consciousness as the new normal.
Sources:
CNN — “Trump lowers tariffs on coffee, beef and fruits” (November 14, 2025)
Argus Media — “Trump removes 40pc tariffs on Brazil’s beef, coffee” (November 20, 2025)
Just-Food — “Trump removes 40% tariff on Brazilian beef, coffee” (November 20, 2025)
Grocery Dive — “US exempts 200+ agricultural products from reciprocal tariffs” (November 13, 2025)
Food Manufacturing (JMCO) — “Trump Administration Removes Tariffs on Food Commodities Amid Price Concerns” (November 22, 2025)