Three and a half years into the Ukraine conflict, Russia has chosen a relentless war of attrition. Despite staggering losses, the Kremlin continues a campaign defined by escalating costs, immense casualties, and an evolving strategy that tests the limits of Russian endurance.
The Scale of Casualties: Nearly One Million Lost
Russian casualties are nearing one million, a figure that rivals or surpasses the combined total for all Russian and Soviet wars since World War II.
Every month, the death toll climbs, with estimates of 100–150 troops lost for every square kilometer gained in 2025.
Tank Losses: Exceeding Prewar Strength
Since February 2022, Russia has lost over 3,000 tanks, outpacing its entire prewar active-duty inventory. These losses—unprecedented in modern Russian history—have left the army increasingly reliant on aging, less effective equipment as newer reserves run dry.
Depleting Armored Reserves
By early 2025, an estimated 25–40% of Russia’s tank reserves had been pulled from storage, with most easily restorable vehicles already depleted.
As a result, Russian armored units face growing vulnerabilities on the battlefield.
Conscription and Recruitment on the Rise
Responding to relentless attrition, Russia’s 2025 spring draft was the largest in 14 years, bringing 160,000 new conscripts into uniform.
Simultaneously, monthly recruitment of contract soldiers hovers at 30–40,000—barely keeping pace with mounting casualties.
6. Soaring Costs of War
The price of maintaining Russia’s war machine continues to climb.
In 2025, each volunteer soldier comes at an average cost of 2 million rubles (about $23,700), with recruitment expenses alone forecasted to consume up to 2.5% of Russia’s GDP by year’s end.
Russia’s Escalating Drone Arsenal
Seeking to offset manpower and equipment losses, Moscow is investing heavily in drone warfare.
Current production of Shahed-type drones stands at around 30,000 per year, with plans to double this figure to 60,000 by 2026 and launch salvos exceeding 2,000 drones by fall 2025.
Ukraine’s Air Defense: Holding But Eroding
In 2024, Ukraine was intercepting 93% of Russian drones—but that rate has declined to 88% in 2025, indicating both the growing volume and improving sophistication of Russian air assaults.
Black Sea Fleet: A Strategic Collapse
The Russian Black Sea Fleet, once the dominant force in the region, has been “almost completely neutralized” by 2025.
Confirmed losses include at least 11 large warships, with many others withdrawn, damaged, or confined to distant ports by sustained Ukrainian attacks.
Ukraine’s Asymmetric Edge
Ukrainian ingenuity—leveraging drones, missiles, and modern coastal defense systems—has dramatically reversed the naval balance.
Persistent strikes have crippled major Russian warships and limited Moscow’s regional power projection.
Strategic and Economic Consequence
The war now consumes an estimated 7.2% of Russia’s GDP, with 40% of the federal budget allocated to military and security services.
The ballooning costs threaten to strain Russia’s long-term economic resilience.
The Push for a Larger Arm
President Putin’s September 2024 decree set the goal of expanding the active-duty army to 1.5 million—second only to China. With Russia’s current military estimated around 1 million, reaching this target requires extraordinary recruitment and mobilization efforts.
The “Forever War” Strategy
Putin’s approach increasingly suggests a readiness for perpetual conflict at a “low simmer,” seeking to outlast Ukraine and the West through steady mobilization, economic adaptation, and relentless combat—even amid immense losses.
International Response and Adaptation
Despite severe sanctions and Western isolation, Russia has adapted, sustaining both its military production and governmental stability.
Neither sanctions nor battlefield setbacks have shifted Putin’s underlying calculus—he aims to keep fighting as long as possible.
Conclusion: Attrition as Policy
As quoted by experts from CSIS, “Russia believes it is winning the war of attrition—and that it can overpower and outlast Ukraine.”
The conflict’s outcome now depends not just on territorial gains, but on which side can sustain its will, resources, and resilience longest.
Sources:
Documented losses (11+ large ships confirmed)
Timeline of collapse (2022–2025)
Ukraine’s asymmetric tactics (drones, missiles, coastal systems)
Strategic implication (loss of naval dominance, regional power projection failure)
Current status (November 2025): Fleet “almost completely neutralised”