The 2025 NFL season has thrown fans, analysts, and teams into turmoil. Jared Dubin’s tier rankings after Week 4 reveal 13 teams, 41% of the league, in a middle-tier limbo, too competitive to tank but too inconsistent to contend.
This snapshot exposes injuries, quarterback struggles, and parity shaping a chaotic landscape. But what exactly drives this uncertainty?
Meet The Analyst Behind The Rankings
Jared Dubin, a New York lawyer and CBS Sports NFL writer, produced the tier-based analysis. He’s covered the league since 2014, providing insights on both football and basketball through his Substack “Last Night, In Basketball.”
His credibility anchors the rankings, showing patterns across performance, injuries, and scheduling. Understanding his methodology sets the stage for how teams landed in each tier.
Tier 1: The Elite “Inner Circle”
Five franchises occupy Tier 1: Buffalo Bills (4-0), Philadelphia Eagles (4-0), Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, and Los Angeles Rams. Bills and Eagles remain undefeated, signaling sustained dominance.
The Rams’ only loss came on a blocked kick, highlighting championship-level potential despite minor setbacks.
Tier 2: Teams That Are “Probably Good”
Tier 2 includes the Chiefs, Chargers, 49ers, Seahawks, and Buccaneers. Four teams sit at 3-1, while Kansas City lags slightly, showing promise but not perfection.
This group teeters on the edge of elite status.
Tier 3: A Middle-Class Crisis
Thirteen teams, 40.6% of the NFL, fall into Tier 3: Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Minnesota, New England, Pittsburgh, and Washington.
Dubin calls them “Possibly Frisky,” reflecting massive uncertainty. Nearly half the league defies early projections.
Tier 4: Probably Bad Teams
The Raiders, Dolphins, and Giants occupy Tier 4, struggling after early setbacks. Injuries and quarterback instability significantly impact their performance.
Each franchise faces internal pressure, from players to front-office staff. Could these organizational challenges push them closer to Tier 5’s deeper dysfunction?
Tier 5: See You At The Draft
Six teams sit at rock bottom: Panthers, Bengals, Browns, Saints, Jets, and Titans. Star injuries like Tyreek Hill, Malik Nabers, and Joe Burrow have decimated their seasons.
Front-office turmoil and poor results make playoff contention unlikely. But can any team recover, or is the path to 2026 already determined?
Star Injuries Reshape The League
Tyreek Hill tore his ACL on September 29, ending his 2025 season. Malik Nabers and Joe Burrow also suffered season-altering injuries, forcing organizational adjustments.
These losses ripple across lineups, play-calling, and fan engagement. How teams respond will determine if they sink further—or stabilize amid chaos.
Quarterback Turmoil Sparks Uncertainty
Rookie Dillon Gabriel replaces Joe Flacco for the Browns, while Titans quarterback Cam Ward bluntly admitted, “We ass.” Geno Smith’s struggles compound issues for the Raiders.
Quarterback volatility exacerbates Tier 3 ambiguity, leaving fans and analysts uncertain about who can withstand the grind. Could a single QB change redefine playoff hopes?
Local Economies Feel The Pain
Poor performance affects stadium staff, local businesses, and sponsorships. Dolphins’ game-day revenue drops without Hill, while the Jets and Giants impact New York’s media market.
These economic effects show that NFL chaos reaches beyond the field. Can struggling franchises maintain fan engagement amid mounting losses?
Geographic Hotspots Of Dysfunction
New York, Miami, and Nashville see the greatest fallout. Titans’ collapse dominates headlines, while Miami and New York lose marquee players and momentum.
The ripple effect hits attendance, merchandise, and local business. Could these regions face long-term consequences if recovery doesn’t arrive quickly?
Why Tier 3 Is So Crowded
The middle tier reflects competitive parity, cascading injuries, and quarterback instability. Teams cannot be clearly ranked as playoff contenders or cellar dwellers.
This unpredictability explains why nearly half the league sits in limbo. But which forces are most responsible for this early-season chaos?
Tier Rankings Under The Microscope
Dubin’s methodology includes win-loss records, roster conditions, remaining schedule, and QB stability. Tier 3 accommodates wide variance: 12-4 playoff teams to 6-11 lottery candidates.
By grouping teams by trajectory rather than exact record, he captures uncertainty. But how did these early projections hold up as the season unfolded?
Surprises Post-Analysis
The Colts (Tier 3) surged to 7-1 by late October, while the Patriots reached 6-2. Bills dropped to 5-2, showing early rankings can miss emergent powerhouses.
This validates Tier 3’s ambiguity. Could similar surprises redefine playoff landscapes in the coming weeks?
Errors And Misattributions
Dubin misassigned Geno Smith to the Raiders and misstated the Giants’ quarterback situation. Jaxson Dart’s reference was incorrect, while Browns’ Dillon Gabriel was omitted.
These mistakes highlight risks in early-season analysis. How much can fans trust projections when facts are occasionally flawed?
The Human Cost Of Chaos
Injuries, instability, and team underperformance have a direct impact on players, staff, and fans. Tyreek Hill, Malik Nabers, and Burrow’s absences cost millions in on-field value and disrupted franchises.
The NFL’s parity and unpredictability mean fan excitement comes with organizational risk. Will the league stabilize, or is chaos the new normal?
2025 Season At A Glance
41% of teams exist in competitive limbo, nearly half the league too talented to tank, too flawed to contend. Extreme parity, injuries, and quarterback swings define 2025.
For analysts, fans, and bettors, the takeaway is clear: this season is unpredictable. Could this early-season turmoil set a new standard for NFL uncertainty?