After midnight, a series of explosions lit up the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery, deep inside Russian territory. Ukrainian drones had struck one of Russia’s ten largest refineries, a sprawling complex that processes 8.8 million metric tons of oil each year. This was the sixth attack on the facility, and despite Russian officials claiming to have intercepted 23 drones, video footage showed flames and destruction across the site. For the 1.15 million residents of Samara, the refinery’s shutdown was more than a headline—it meant the loss of high-grade jet fuel crucial to Russia’s military operations.
A Strategic Target Goes Offline
The Novokuibyshevsk refinery generates between $4 and $6 billion in refined products annually, including over a million tons each of motor gasoline and fuel oil, and 1.64 million tons of diesel. Much of this output supports Russia’s military logistics, from aviation fuel to diesel for supply convoys. When Ukraine targets this facility, it strikes at the heart of Russia’s ability to sustain its war effort. The October 18–19 attack forced a complete shutdown of the plant’s main crude distillation units, including CDU-11, which processes nearly 19,000 metric tons per day. Although industry sources expected partial operations to resume by early November, Ukraine struck again before repairs could be completed. This pattern suggests Ukrainian intelligence is closely monitoring recovery efforts and timing strikes to maximize disruption.
Ukraine’s Drone Arsenal Expands
Amid the chaos, Ukraine confirmed the combat debut of the “Bars” jet-powered drone. With a range of 700–800 kilometers and speeds approaching 700 km/h, the Bars can carry a 50–100 kg warhead and be launched from ground or air platforms. Defense sources say the drone is designed for mass production within Ukraine, offering a long-term option for high-speed, long-range strikes. Ukraine’s FP-1 drone, produced by Fire Point, can reach targets up to 1,400 kilometers away and accounts for about two-thirds of Ukraine’s deep strikes inside Russia. Production reportedly exceeds 2,000 units per month at a cost of approximately $47,000 each. Military officials state that about half of all FP-1 missions succeed at ranges of 800–1,000 kilometers, allowing Ukraine to hit strategic assets far from the front lines.
Ripple Effects Across Russia’s Energy Sector
By late October, roughly 10 percent of Russia’s refining capacity—about 500,000 barrels per day—had been knocked offline, according to JPMorgan Chase estimates. Other assessments, such as those from the monitoring agency Siala, reported disruptions as high as 38 percent by late September. Since early November, Ukraine has struck additional facilities in Volgograd, Tuapse, Nizhny Novgorod, Ryazan, and Saratov. Analyst George Voloshin predicts outages could reach 25 percent over the next six to twelve months if strikes continue at this pace. Fuel shortages are now widespread, with gasoline prices rising around 10 percent and lines forming at filling stations in multiple regions. Authorities have resorted to shutting down mobile internet access for hours to hinder drone navigation, leaving residents cut off from communication.
Military and Economic Consequences
The strikes have direct military consequences. Days before the Samara attack, Ukraine hit the Ryazan refinery, damaging two primary processing units and halting all crude processing until at least December 1. Ryazan produces more than 800,000 tons of aviation kerosene annually for Russia’s air forces, making its outage a significant blow. On the same night as the Samara strike, Ukrainian forces targeted a storage site used by Russia’s elite Rubikon unit in occupied Donetsk Oblast. Established in 2024, Rubikon specializes in detecting and eliminating Ukrainian drone operators using advanced signals intelligence. The Ukrainian strike likely damaged or destroyed dozens of Shahed-type drones and key infrastructure, undermining Russia’s counter-drone capabilities.
Rosneft, Russia’s oil giant, reported a 68 percent drop in net income in the first half of 2025, with refining volumes falling from 40.9 million tons the previous year to 38.7 million tons. Each refinery outage forces Rosneft to reroute supplies over longer distances, increasing transportation costs by 15–25 percent and disrupting downstream distribution networks. Sustained Ukrainian pressure compounds these economic strains, forcing Russia to defend dozens of vulnerable facilities and repair damaged infrastructure.
A War of Attrition Reaches Deep Into Russia
Ukraine’s strategy of targeting refineries and military infrastructure is orchestrated by elite units, including the 1st Separate Special Purpose Center, Special Operations Forces, and the Main Intelligence Directorate. Coordinated strikes have repeatedly forced Russia to repair damage before facilities can return to full operation. On November 3, Ukrainian intelligence used an FP-2 drone carrying over 100 kg of explosives to destroy a Rubikon command post in occupied Avdiivka, with assistance from the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade. Eliminating these units early prevents Russia from solidifying drone dominance in contested areas.
Each FP-1 drone costs about $47,000 to produce, but a successful strike can temporarily disable a facility producing tens of millions of dollars in output per day. Analysts agree that no single attack will collapse Russia’s energy infrastructure, but sustained pressure increases the likelihood of cascading failures and accelerates long-term capacity losses. For Ukraine, the message is clear: no strategic asset inside Russia is out of reach. As the war drags on, the stakes grow higher—not just for the combatants, but for millions of civilians now living with the consequences of a conflict that has breached Russia’s industrial heartland.