Starting February 1, 2026, air travelers across America face a stark new reality: forget your REAL ID, and you’ll pay $45 just to board a domestic flight. This isn’t a scare tactic; it’s policy.
The TSA’s new ConfirmID system targets roughly 150,000 daily travelers who lack compliant identification, generating billions in fees while leaving many scrambling to comply. That shift has been years in the making.
The 20-Year Delay Finally Runs Out
Congress passed the REAL ID Act in 2005 after 9/11 Commission recommendations, but enforcement stalled for years. When May 7, 2025, arrived, TSA began checking identification at checkpoints nationwide. Most travelers can still fly with non-compliant IDs and undergo extra screening, but the grace period ends on February 1, 2026. A new kind of barrier appears at security. What changed so fast?
The $45 Fee Few Saw Coming
TSA initially proposed an $18 fee for identity verification, but by December 2025, officials announced the true cost: $45. The jump more than doubled the original estimate, stunning travelers. TSA says the higher amount reflects administrative and technology costs needed to verify identities through biometric and biographic systems. The price set expectations, but it also raised a bigger question.
ConfirmID Turns Verification Into A Purchase
TSA ConfirmID launches February 1 as a fee-funded identity verification program. Travelers without acceptable ID can pay $45 and undergo enhanced screening using biometric or biographic verification.
The process takes 10-30 minutes and can happen online before traveling or at the airport. One receipt covers all flights within a 10-day window. That convenience hides the true scale.
The 6% Who Could Pay Every Day
The TSA reports that 94% of passengers already carry compliant identification, such as REAL IDs, passports, military IDs, or trusted traveler cards. The remaining 6% face the $45 fee.
With 2.7 million daily U.S. air passengers, that is about 150,000 people per day. Over 365 days, fees could reach $2-2.5 billion. Geography decides who feels it first.
The States Where Compliance Splits Wide
State REAL ID readiness varies dramatically across America. Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming, and Washington D.C. report nearly 100% compliance.
Texas shows 98%, while Mississippi, Hawaii, and Utah each report 96%. New Jersey lags at 17%, and Pennsylvania, Washington state, and Maine sit near 26-27%. The reasons get messy.
Why Some DMVs Fell So Far Behind
New Jersey’s 17% compliance rate reflects policy choices and infrastructure challenges. The state continued to issue standard IDs marked “Not for REAL ID purposes,” providing residents with an easy alternative. Illinois struggled too, with 2/3 of residents still lacking compliant IDs in May 2025. Officials opened a REAL ID Super Center in a former Chicago Walgreens to process 1,500 daily. But demand surged.
The DMV Bottleneck Turns Into A Deadline Trap
Obtaining a REAL ID requires a visit to the DMV, where you will need to provide proof of identity, Social Security number, two proofs of residency, and proof of lawful status. Each state handles renewals and applications differently. California processes online REAL IDs in 2 weeks via mail, or 4 weeks standard. Demand created backlogs, with appointments filling within hours. “There have been 17 years for people to get compliant with REAL ID,” said Janice Kephart. Still, many arrive unprepared.
When A Simple Mistake Costs $45
TSA ConfirmID is not only for procrastinators who never got a REAL ID. It also covers people who show up after leaving their identification at home, a common mistake on travel days.
Families rushing morning departures, business travelers distracted by work calls, and vacationers packing hastily all risk arriving without proper ID. ConfirmID offers a second chance, but at a high cost and with a significant time commitment. The fine print is harsher.
Paying Does Not Mean You Fly
Paying $45 and completing ConfirmID does not guarantee that TSA will allow you through security. TSA warns identity verification might fail even after the fee is paid.
If TSA cannot confirm your identity due to record issues, database problems, or unresolved discrepancies, you will not be cleared, and your $45 is gone. The agency states the fee is nonrefundable. What does the process actually look like?
The Form That Decides Your Trip
Travelers without compliant ID must visit TSA. gov or Pay. gov and follow the online verification process before arriving at the airport. They enter their legal name, date of birth, Social Security number, and address.
TSA runs the information against the Secure Flight watch list and government databases, then emails confirmation if approved. “We still need to go through the process to make sure that we verify who you are,” Steve Lorincz told ABC News. Timing becomes everything.
The 10-Day Rule That Catches People
Once paid and verified, the ConfirmID receipt is valid for exactly 10 days. A traveler flying out on February 8 and returning on February 12 needs only 1 payment.
Someone leaving February 8 and returning February 20 must pay twice, because the window expires mid-trip. Frequent travelers relying on ConfirmID could incur $450+ in yearly fees. Multiply that across airports and the numbers explode.
How The Fee Could Reach Billions
TSA’s fee development report projects that ConfirmID could generate approximately $3 billion annually if the 6% non-compliance rate remains steady. With roughly 150,000 daily non-compliant travelers paying $45, annual revenue could hit $2.5-3 billion.
That assumes current passenger volumes and compliance percentages remain unchanged. As awareness grows and February 1 nears, more travelers may rush to obtain REAL IDs, shrinking the pool. Airlines are preparing for the early shock.
Airlines Brace For The First-Week Crunch
Airlines for America began warning members in December 2025 about the approaching deadline. Airlines must ensure staff recognize ConfirmID receipts and understand the verification process.
The industry runs 27,000 flights daily, carrying 2.7 million passengers and supporting 10 million U.S. jobs. Major carriers are coordinating with TSA, but airports expect congestion and confusion during the first weeks. Some travelers get a break, though.
The Rule Families Often Misunderstand
Travelers under 18 are exempt from REAL ID requirements and do not need identification for domestic flights. That can simplify trips for parents traveling with children.
However, children on solo trips or unaccompanied minor flights may face different airline requirements. For adults traveling with kids, the pressure stays on having a compliant ID for themselves while managing family logistics. Many adults have other options besides REAL ID.
The Documents That Skip The $45 Fee
Travelers can avoid the $45 fee with a valid U.S. passport, passport card, DHS trusted traveler card, Department of Defense ID, permanent resident card, border crossing card, tribal ID, or enhanced driver’s license. 5 states issue enhanced licenses: Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Vermont, and Washington. The TSA is also testing digital IDs, including Apple’s Digital ID and Google’s ID Pass. “TSA said it will also accept Digital Identification such as Apple Digital ID, Clear ID, and a Google ID pass as a part of our ongoing testing efforts to strengthen identity security,” TSA guidance said. But technology brings another risk.
What If The System Goes Down?
ConfirmID depends on real-time database connections and biometric matching technology. Outages, network failures, or database errors could strand travelers even after they pay and complete online verification.
TSA has not published detailed contingency plans for technical failures, raising questions about what happens if systems crash during peak periods. If the tools fail, travelers still face the same clock and gate. So what should people do right now?
The Short Window Before Feb. 1
Time is running out, with just 17 days before February 1, 2026. Getting a REAL ID means scheduling a DMV appointment, gathering documents, visiting in person, and waiting for mailed credentials.
California processes REAL IDs in 2 weeks for online renewals, but delivery extends total time. New Jersey offers emergency REAL ID appointments for travelers departing within 14 days, with expedited shipping fees of $80. Most DMVs offer online scheduling, but companies face another layer.
Corporate Travel Policies Get Complicated Fast
Business travel managers must verify traveling employees hold compliant identification. Companies cannot assume standard driver’s licenses will be accepted for conferences, client meetings, or training trips.
HR teams are reviewing policies to reimburse $45 ConfirmID fees or require REAL ID compliance before approving travel. That adds administrative burden, creates new expense lines, and increases the chance of last-minute cancellations. The biggest impact may fall on certain travelers.
Will People Comply Or Just Pay?
Experts predict 2 outcomes: travelers rush to get REAL IDs before February 1, or many simply pay $45 when needed. Michelle Couch-Friedman of Consumer Rescue expects infrequent travelers will struggle most.
She points to adults over 50, who account for 46% of planned 2025 domestic air trips, as a group likely to face confusion. She also expects delays in the first weeks. But what if someone refuses altogether?
No Permanent Opt-Out From The New Rule
There is no permanent opt-out from REAL ID requirements or the $45 ConfirmID fee. Travelers who refuse to pay or fail verification will not pass security and will miss flights.
TSA officers have no authority to waive fees or make exceptions. For frequent flyers, getting a REAL ID is far more cost-effective than repeatedly paying $45. February 1 locks in a new era, and the gate will enforce it.
Sources
TSA ConfirmID Program Overview. Transportation Security Administration, January 2026
REAL ID Enforcement and Identity Verification Guidance. Transportation Security Administration, January 2026
REAL ID Act Implementation. U.S. Department of Homeland Security, December 2025
What to Know About Real ID Requirements as TSA Set to Enforce New Fee. ABC News, December 2025
TSA to Launch Confirm.ID for Travelers Without REAL ID. Airlines for America, December 10, 2025
REAL ID Compliance Rates by State. U.S. Department of Homeland Security, April 2025