Two in five Americans have a message for Trump: your policies are making groceries unaffordable. But here’s what stings more—one in five people who voted for him just last year now blame him for their grocery bills spiking.
According to Politico and Public First polling, that’s the real betrayal. Trump promised “day one” price cuts. Instead, his base is fracturing at the checkout line.
When the Turkey Cost More Than Expected
Wholesale turkey prices have rocketed 75 percent since October 2024, according to Purdue University’s Center for Food Demand Analysis. An average 15-pound turkey now costs $31—a 25 percent jump from last year.
While retailers like Walmart and Target are running promotional sales, those discounts mask the brutal reality: wholesale costs have exploded, and stores are absorbing massive losses temporarily to manage the optics.
Groceries Now Trump Health Care and Housing
For the first time in modern polling, Americans rank grocery prices as their single biggest household concern—above healthcare and housing, according to Politico. Forty-five percent cite groceries as the most challenging to afford, compared to 38 percent for housing and 34 percent for healthcare.
This isn’t abstract economics anymore. It’s families making agonizing choices about which staples they can afford this week.
The 20 Percent Defection That Signals Trouble
One in five Trump voters now blame him for rising grocery costs. These aren’t longtime critics—they voted for him in 2024, believing his promise to cut prices immediately.
The defection matters because it shows the limits of partisan loyalty when families face real financial pressure at the checkout line every single week.
Republicans Split on Trump’s Economic Claims
Four in ten Republicans believe Trump is making affordability sound better than reality, according to CBS News.
Another 32 percent of Republicans say his policies made prices rise, while 32 percent say prices fell—a perfect split revealing confusion and doubt within his own party coalition about whether Trump’s messaging aligns with the kitchen-table experience.
Marjorie Taylor Greene Breaks Ranks
“I go to the grocery store myself,” Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene told CNN in November. “Grocery prices remain high. Energy prices are high. So, affordability is a problem.”
The former Trump loyalist’s public criticism signals that even his most devoted defenders are struggling to defend his economic record when facing their own bills.
The Wholesale Trap: Discounts Hide Future Pain
Wholesale turkey prices are up 75 percent, yet retail prices show a 16 percent drop, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. That’s mathematically possible only because retailers are absorbing losses as a temporary strategy.
Beef prices jumped 14 percent year-over-year. When promotional windows close, consumers will face the full wholesale price shock directly.
Steel Tariffs Drive Up Canned Goods
The 25 percent tariff on imported steel has driven up prices for canned goods, with some items, such as canned cranberry sauce, increasing by 38 percent from last year. Coffee, tropical fruits, and other imports face additional tariff barriers.
Trump’s trade war strategy, designed to boost American manufacturing, has created unintended consequences in the grocery aisle that everyday families are paying for.
Experts Warn of Sharper Price Increases Ahead
Economics professor Raymond Robertson of Texas A&M University told Politico that all signs point to “sharper price increases” coming in food prices. Retail stores using temporary discounts to manage the perception of affordability won’t—and can’t—sustain that strategy indefinitely.
Consumers should prepare for worse pain ahead.
The Poll Numbers Paint a Devastating Picture
Sixty-five percent of Americans believe Trump’s policies are causing grocery prices to soar. Fifty-eight percent say his policies specifically make food and groceries rise. Only 11 percent believe Trump’s claims that things are cheaper.
His job approval hit 38 percent, with affordability cited as the primary driver of disapproval. The numbers are moving decisively against him.
The “Day One” Promise Becomes Hollow
Trump’s 2024 campaign centered on a specific claim: prices will drop on day one. Now, nearly a year into his second term, that promise has become a punchline.
Voters remember what groceries cost a year ago. No messaging can overcome the gap between a receipt in their hand and a broken promise on repeat.
Generational Fracture Within the GOP Base
Younger Trump voters are less likely to believe his claims about affordability. Hispanic voters who shifted toward Trump on economic promises are returning to Democrats, with 70 percent saying his policies raise food prices.
Working-class voters without college degrees—core Trump supporters—now show record-high disapproval of his job performance, citing economic hardship.
Even Republicans Are Abandoning the Defense
Rep. Elise Stefanik, a House Republican leader, identified affordability as the unambiguous top issue for her constituents. Republican strategist Doug Heye warned that Trump’s dismissal of affordability concerns isn’t helping GOP candidates.
Republicans need to “relay to voters that they understand and are trying to fix it,” he said. That’s precisely the message Trump isn’t delivering.
Thanksgiving 2025: Families Making Hard Choices
Families are postponing expensive proteins, buying smaller quantities, and carrying credit card balances to bridge the gap between paychecks and rising costs. The holiday meant for abundance is shadowed by financial anxiety.
Every conversation about the turkey’s price becomes a conversation about whether Trump kept his promises.
The 2026 Midterm Reckoning Looms
Democratic victories in Virginia, New Jersey, Georgia, and Pennsylvania were explicitly built around the message of affordability and economic opportunity. History suggests midterm elections punish the party in power on economic issues.
Trump enters 2026 with some of the lowest approval ratings of his presidency, and if food prices climb as experts predict, Republicans could face significant losses.
Sources:
CBS News Poll, November 2025 – 65% of Americans say Trump policies cause grocery price increases; 40% of Republicans doubt his affordability claims
Politico and Public First Poll, November 2025 – 55% blame Trump; 20% of Trump voters blame him; grocery prices rank above health care and housing; Raymond Robertson warning on sharper increases
Purdue University Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability – 75% wholesale turkey price increase since October 2024; $31 average 15-pound turkey (25% year-over-year); 14% beef increase
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, CNN interview, November 2025 – Direct quote on grocery and energy prices
Reuters, Associated Press, Fox News polling – 38% job approval; demographic fractures; Elise Stefanik and Doug Heye commentary; Democratic midterm victories; Hispanic and working-class voter defection rates